The US dog food market is stabilizing, but pockets of high growth remain, especially in areas linked to wellness, affordability, and format innovation. These are segments that continue to pull ahead, even as broader category growth slows.
From surge to slowdown
The US dog food market experienced a strong period of growth between 2020 and 2023, expanding at a 12% CAGR to reach $24bn in wholesale prices. Growth was fuelled by rising pet adoption, increased trade-up to premium products, and like-for-like price inflation. As consumers became more ingredient-conscious and invested in pet wellness, demand shifted toward clean, high-protein, natural formulations, benefiting premium and super-premium brands.
In 2024, macroeconomic headwinds and a post-inflation correction resulted in flat category growth and challenged the longer-term premiumization trend. However, certain sub-segments – including fresh formats, unique kibble offerings, and private label – continue to outperform and gain share, suggesting that opportunities remain for operators positioned to meet shifting consumer needs.
Kibble holds ground whilst fresh takes share
Kibble continues to dominate, accounting for approximately 75% of the category, but fresh dog food has emerged as a notable disruptor—primarily at the expense of shelf-stable wet food. Its rise has been driven by ongoing supply-side innovation, rising consumer demand for cleaner, high-protein formulations, and marketing investment from digitally native brands to build awareness and expand the category. Fresh has scaled rapidly, growing at a ~25% CAGR from 2019 to 2024, reaching 8% share, and is projected to maintain double-digit growth through 2027.
At the same time, traditional shelf-stable wet food is losing relevance, with market share declining from 22% to 17% over the past five years, largely driven by consumer concerns around smell, texture, and ingredient quality. This shift is symptomatic of a broader realignment within the market—a move away from undifferentiated, mid-tier brands and toward clearly positioned offerings at both the value and premium ends of the spectrum.
Premium kibble feels the squeeze
The kibble segment, though mature, has become increasingly bifurcated, with clear growth concentrated at both the affordable and super-premium ends of the market. Amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures, many consumers are trading down from traditional premium brands. Some are shifting toward private label and legacy value brands, while others are opting for emerging mass-premium insurgents that offer high-quality ingredients at more accessible price points.
At the other end of the spectrum, super-premium brands targeting affluent, wellness-oriented pet owners continue to outperform. These brands frequently lead in both format and ingredient innovation, from freeze-dried, air-dried, or baked kibble to human-grade, organic, and functionally active ingredients. They also benefit from digital-first strategies that allow them to tap into secular e-commerce growth trends.
Traditional premium brands still hold a significant share of the category, but they are under increasing pressure. This creates space for value-led insurgents and premium challengers to grow—provided they offer a clear, credible point of difference.
Where to focus now
While category-wide growth has slowed, targeted opportunities remain. Strong performers are carving out space at the edges of the market, with clear propositions and formats that resonate. Here’s where focus can still deliver results:
- Play the barbell: own either the value-for-money proposition or capture the super-premium proposition. The middle is under pressure.
- Keep it clean: ingredient transparency and quality drive purchase decisions at both ends of the market. Spotlight natural, high meat content, and clear “made in USA” claims.
- Master omnichannel reach: combine strong digital presence for brand discovery and acquisition with disciplined in-store execution to maximize conversion and velocity.
- Supply the disruptors: contract manufacturers can partner with high-growth digitally native brands or scale volume through private-label programs.
The easy wins are gone. But with a sharp understanding of what’s driving growth—and what’s not—there’s still room to outperform.
For more insight into the US dog food market or to discuss strategic investment opportunities, get in touch.
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